SEVERE WEATHER MESSAGE 2025031501
SOUTH CAROLINA ARES/SKYWARN
0836 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025
*** SIGNIFICAN SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ***
- SYNOPSSIS…
Very warm and well above normal temperatures linger through the
weekend with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible
across the mountains today. A powerful storm system brings
widespread severe weather to the area Saturday night into Sunday
morning, bringing damaging winds and tornadoes. Drier weather
returns early next week with cooler temperatures expected on Monday
before warm and well above normal temperatures return Tuesday into
Wednesday.
- GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG – UPSTATE…
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-064-065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-160815-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-Rowan-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
410 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE…Today and tonight.
A powerful storm system will impact the region this evening into
tonight bringing heavy rain and severe storms. The main hazards with
any severe storms that develop are damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes. A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additionally,
locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash flooding,
especially across the southwest North Carolina mountains and the
South Carolina and Georgia mountains. Gusty non-thunderstorm winds
will develop today into tonight, with gusts from 25-35 mph expected
east of the mountains.
- COLUMBIA – SC MIDLANDS
– Low stratus and patchy fog this morning but staying dry.
– Shower and thunderstorm chances increase across the western FA
late tonight into early Sunday morning.
The upper ridge continues to move offshore this morning with light
southeast surface winds. This has led to moist onshore flow,
bringing a broad area of stratus and some patchy fog to much of the
eastern half of the state. 850 mb winds around 20-25 kts are likely
keeping visibilities from dropping too low at this point, but
surface obs suggest cloud decks between 200 and 400 ft along with 1-
3 SM visibilities. Mostly an aviation concern at the moment, but
some early morning travel could be slower than usual. Additionally,
this has kept surface temperatures elevated, with lows only in the
mid to upper 50s so far. We probably won`t drop too much more than
that with the sun coming up in just a couple more hours.
Fog begins to dissipate into the mid morning and southeast winds are
expected to kick up around noon. We should see some sunshine today,
and warm advection will lead to another warm day with highs around
- Windspeeds of 10-15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph are expected
this afternoon into this evening. In fact, the gradient
strengthens further tonight, and there is a high chance we`ll
end up needing a Lake Wind Advisory at some point for this
evening into Sunday, but we will defer to the next shift to iron
out those details. PWAT`s will increase once more to around 1″
by this evening, but further moistening is expected with values
reaching closer to 1.5″ by daybreak Sunday.
Rain chances remain low until late tonight/early Sunday morning as a
line of convection approaches the area ahead of a potent cold front.
This line of storms is expected to bring a widespread severe weather
outbreak across the Deep South today. We`ll be watching closely for
timing on the convection, but the earlier the line starts to move
through the better. The ingredients will be present for us to also
have some widespread strong to severe thunderstorms (strong jet
streak, abundant bulk shear), but a timing change of a few hours
slower or faster could be the difference in the amount of
instability needed for storms to sustain through our area. The
official forecast depicts precip chances increasing across the
CSRA/western Midlands around 2 AM tonight and spreading eastward
toward daybreak. This slight shift toward a quicker transit is
mainly to cover the HRRR solution which is faster than other
guidance. Models such as the NAM/GFS are slower, keeping convection
to our west until later on Sunday which would increase the overall
severe threat. In general, the timing details bear watching closely
as the situation develops. Overnight lows will remain in the mid-
upper 60`s Sunday morning; this could possibly set a daily high
minimum temperature depending how things progress the rest of Sunday.
- CHARLESTON – LOW COUNTRY…
A Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) of severe weather is expected in
far west Georgia and an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe
weather is expected elsewhere across our area between Saturday
afternoon and Sunday morning. All severe weather hazards including
tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will be possible with
thunderstorms that develop.
- WILMINGTON – NORTHEAST SC/PEEDEE…
The potential exists for a line of storms with isolated damaging
wind gusts on Sunday.
- SKYWARN ACTIVATION:
ALL SKYWARN NET CONTROL STATIONS ARE ASKED TO BE LEVEL 2 STANDBY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKYWARN NET ACTIVATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA. NOW IS THE TIME TO VERIFY ALL EQUIPMENT IS IN WORKING ORDER. MOST OF THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE STATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF ATTEMPTING TO VENTURE OUT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT ANOTHER UPDATE BETWEEN 9PM AND 10PM OR AS CONDITIONS WARRANT…
BLI/K9OH
